9 plots that tell you exactly when to ship your LLM changes and when to collect more data. From weight explosions to confidence intervals—see what reliable evaluation actually looks like.
Standard offline evaluation fails catastrophically for LLMs—0.6% effective sample size on Arena data. Here's how importance weighting with calibration and stabilization enables reliable counterfactual evaluation.
Standard importance sampling breaks catastrophically when evaluating LLMs offline. We explain why effective sample size drops to near zero and how Causal Judge Evaluation's projections restore reliable evaluation.